Things are not as they seem

I was inspired by Joy of Lamusicjunkie to do a post today. Thanks for that Joy,  Well in. Funny how writers block is murdered so easily and effortlessly. Ive always been a curious one and nothing puts me in a binder more than being so sure of myself then being proven so wrong. It is always a hook that I always bite. I am definitely not alone in this as that kind of story telling seems to be the plot for just about all the movies and series I end up enjoying. Somebody cue Shutter Island,

Film poster for The Usual Suspects
Film poster for The Usual Suspects (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Usual Suspects .  . The attraction to these flicks is simply because I couldn’t predict the end, or rather that my predictions were so far from the truth. Mind F***s are also welcome as was seen on the (tiger on boat thing) So its evident am definitely a story kinda guy. A well told story is the best thing you could gift me.

And then last week happened. I was amongst the folk that was caught with their jaws on the floor as Donald Trump became the 45th President elect of the land of the free, home of the brave. I totally didn’t see it coming and I thought those who were afraid of his win were rather panicky. As he marched from one ridiculous statement to the next even being recorded talking about how he groped women, I didn’t think he stood a chance. but here we are.

speaking at CPAC in Washington D.C. on Februar...
speaking at CPAC in Washington D.C. on February 10, 2011. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

I suppose we deserved it. Those that believed Hillary would win live in a bubble. A bubble that sees the way the world works to be ideal. A bubble that doesn’t exactly struggle to make ends meet. One where the tax increases that hurt are on beer and cigarettes, and only for a little while. This bubble is across the world. I see it in Nairobi all the time. I remember when buying a beer was 120/- and that was considered costly. This is barely 4 years ago. A regular beer now in a regular bar is upwards of 200/-. Ofcourse this can be attributed to the government layering on the sin tax on alcohol. Which is actually fine. What is interesting is that the rate of consumption doesn’t reduce at all with increase in price. Everything else is getting cheaper in terms of capital required to start a business or enterprise but the cost of living keeps increasing.

Its easy to get lost in the bubble and the echo chamber that is social media. You post what we think our friends will like, proceed to get 400 likes and believe this is a true reflection of what its like out there. I think our Presidential Social Media team has fallen for this. And its probably dangerous for all of us. To live in a bubble that thinks next years elections will be won by the incumbent just because they control the state, parliament and Twitter.

Geopolitics is amazing and in another life i will take it up as a study topic as I find it fascinating. Its especially very satisfying to spot a trend and predict outcomes correctly. It is also very educative to be proven so wrong so hard. I will not forget the Trump lesson and its implications locally.

Another prediction that I have had for ages is that the era of global wars is over what with mutually assured destruction being what it is. But when a guy like Putin starts talking like this and guys like Trump win elections. . . well what can I say. I hope I don’t get to eat my own words.