Aside from the communal baying for the IEBCs blood over the past week for having the audacity to make Kenyans wait for the conclusion of the elections, another interesting piece of news has slipped by mostly unnoticed.
This has been happening parallel to the ominous statements issued by the United Kingdom and the United States about the consequences of making bad decisions a.k.a voting in the UhuRuto duo.
With the dreaded candidates poised to win, the movements from the two powers will be interesting in the immediate future what with the views that China doesn’t really mind who runs a country so long as they are ready to do business. The paltry bargaining power that the west and Europe are increasingly finding themselves wielding must be disconcerting and may explain why armed responses seem to be the only card they have left.
The relaxation of the terms and conditions of the cases against the suspects emphasizes the fact that legal and economic decisions are not independent from the political situation in the particular time frame. Obamas decisions must be timed and weighted by the mood on the ground in kenya lest the rejection winds up causing more harm than good by way of govt cooperation and having a regional ally.
It is instructive that the US is not a signatory to the rome statute on which the ICC is based so the moral authority to actually make other nations adhere to it is not exactly intact. But what do we expect from the largest exporter of weaponry and by extension war.
My basic premise is that court processes that are meant to be impartial and use the law as their holy text are undetachable from the prevailing political climate. The ICC being an international independent body should be the least to be concerned by the nuances of a national election in which the suspects are top contenders but we see a very measured approach to how the cases are handled and the media briefings issued by the prosecutor.
This is also illustrated by the happenings in the southern states of the US at the prime of and decline of slavery in the United States of America. It seems preposterous that what is considered the land of the free or the brave just a couple of years ago felt that counting niggers like cattle and considering them to be assets was perfectly legal. This was considered lawful within the context of the political climate and I dare say it was legal as a consequence of the political climate as opposed to existing next to it in a symbiotic relationship.
Here we were with an expensive electronic system that was supposed to guard against rigging, gerrymandering and all sorts of irregularities that are the staple of Kenyan elections. All that is until the whole damn thing collapsed with so many issues that it was fully abandoned and now we are back to the 19th century with manual counting. Atleast we have calculators. That should help.
Some say, the issue was the server running out of harddisk space, others that Safaricom collapsed under the traffic (which was pitifully little, only hashed text was being sent from the Returning officers.) Others speculate that the server (vulnerable like anything else connected to the internet) was hacked to bits and a permanent 400,000 lead in favour of Uhuru Kenyatta was coded in.
The conspiracy theory in me tells me this is more a human problem than a technical one. Someone/some people are trying to rig themselves in and the ripple effects of these actions are the visible events at Bomas of Kenya. I say this at the risk of being branded a warmonger or unpatriotic kenyan ad nauseam but I stand by it. There is nothing normal about the Chairman of the IEBC insisting on the fact that the law gives him a week to announce the presidential results. That signals a big problem that has required a recount or in depth audit of the results filed by the Returning officers. The slow rate at which the results are bing announced is also disheartening. & constituencies since morning. What possible issue could justify such a rate?
A useful site has been put up by Eric Hersman to investigate the internals of the system and the flow of the electoral information from the polling centers to the National Tallying center. Here is the site (http://iebctechkenya.tumblr.com/). This should be the start of the investigation into how a Ksh. 10 Billion plus election that has spent extremely heavily on tech has proceeded to dump the tech.
As is the Kenyan style, the biggest problem that the public has is with the PR department of the IEBC. Everything was fine 5 hrs after tallying began until the incrments slowed down to a painful trickle. All through the communication style of the commission was unsatisfactory with all manner of quotations of the law with less and less of what the public actually wanted. Actual results!
Speculation without evidence is generally shunned in my circles so I avoid it. But with scanty information coming from the authorities, throwing stones in the dark tends to get a response.
As predicted or as expected, most citizens here have collapsed into the tribal conclave and are shouting themselves for their favorite politician who can speak their mother tongue.
I have no problem with this. Preferring a tribe-mate is just as natural as being loyal to your family members accepting all their flaws and warts. No-one is perfect anyway and being pretentious and judgmental is rather goody two shoes.
As was infamously intimated by the prime minister a while back, the Kenya elections are a two horse race and the rest just stretching their legs. This is of-course largely true and the most the others can expect to gain from this escapade is to gain exposure, reputation, and some clout back home being a potential presidential contender.
The potential benefit of having a couple of parliamentarians and being the defacto leader (or party owner) of the group helps with post election negotiations for appointments and power share. In the event that there is a runoff, the swing vote is controlled by the lesser candidates who have the loyalty of the voters that would not have voted for the two horses anyway. This is a good position to be in if you know you have no chance of making it to statehouse but want some power nonetheless.
As it stands Mudavadi has the most conspicuous swing vote and yes this is based mostly on tribal numbers. We may lie to ourselves all we want but tribe is king when it comes to politics in this part of the world.