The Swing Vote

As predicted or as expected, most citizens here have collapsed into the tribal conclave and are shouting themselves for their favorite politician who can speak their mother tongue.

I have no problem with this. Preferring a tribe-mate is just as natural as being loyal to your family members accepting all their flaws and warts. No-one is perfect anyway and being pretentious and judgmental is rather goody two shoes.

As was infamously intimated by the prime minister a while back, the Kenya elections are a two horse race and the rest just stretching their legs. This is of-course largely true and the most the others can expect to gain from this escapade is to gain exposure, reputation, and some clout back home being a potential presidential contender.

The potential benefit of having a couple of parliamentarians and being the defacto leader (or party owner) of the group helps with post election negotiations for appointments and power share. In the event that there is a runoff, the swing vote is controlled by the lesser candidates who have the loyalty of the voters that would not have voted for the two horses anyway. This is a good position to be in if you know you have no chance of making it to statehouse but want some power nonetheless.

As it stands Mudavadi has the most conspicuous swing vote and yes this is based mostly on tribal numbers. We may lie to ourselves all we want but tribe is king when it comes to politics in this part of the world.

Lets see how things go on the 4th.

Enhanced by Zemanta