I dont like bullies much , they tend to not be very smart or as tough as they imagine they are. The somali militia that go under the gangsta like name of al-shabab tend to act like a bunch of bullies that didnt get enough hugs from their mommas. They banned, radio, music, bras and samosas. Who bans samosas?
Now the analyst in me doesnt buy the official story that goes something like this. The al-shabab are bloodthirsty mindless not so bright terrorists in somalia who effectively run the country. They are pirates, kidnappers, murderes, relief food thieves, rapists and die hard islamists to boot. Over the past 10years they have been attacking security installations on the Kenyan border without provocation and doing what they do best, terrorising the locals. And now they broke the camels back with the final straw by abducting a frenchwoman and a Spaniard. Kenyan military shot callers decided that declaring war on this menace is inevitable. This story makes sense on the surface. Slap me, step on my jays and disrespect my mother in that order and you would probably expect a punch will meet your face.
But the facts dont seem to add up. A walk through Eastleigh would explain why. Kenya is good for Somalia. We launder their pirate money, we have shariah compliant banks, the growing middle class consume wariah imported products like a nonsense, and we have two large refugee camps hosting their citizens. Now the media and the powers that be would have us believe that the mindless al shabab dont care about any of that and it may be true but I dont think so. If you have spent any time with somalis or those with afro-arabic persuasions then you know they are easily the most accomodating people so long as you respect their customs and values.
Abducting foreign nationals would result in a military reaction. There is no other endgame seeing as there is no official government to negotiate with. Why a flimsy ‘terrorist’ network would want tanks and foreign troops on their soil hunting them down escapes me. And why attack the only neighbour that appears to want to help you out? Granted militias run by egomaniacs are not the most rational of bodies to look out for the interests of their citizens/dependants but they are not universally composed of estranged young men who think being shot or blown up is awesome. We have people with families and who dream of a better future.
I think strings ropes are being pulled by someone more influential. Someone who has always wanted to invade somalia and is using Kenya as a proxy.
All that being said, frightening times ahead. We may start seeing suicide bombing in Nairobi if the al-shabab are going to make do on their threat. Maybe we should invite that swaggerefic dude back to perform, he may distract the youths being promised 7 virgins in heaven.